State of the Union Address Predictions

President Barack Obama’s 2011 State of the Union Address Tuesday will likely focus largely on one of the first goals he addressed as president -- bipartisanship.  The subject seemed like a lot of fluff, particularly each time Obama plugged the fact that Democrats had a majority before the last election.

It is hard to believe bipartisanship is particularly important as the man who tells you so still actively seeks to give his own party the one up.

Now, however, the idea of bipartisanship seems to make a lot more sense.

In the wake of the recent shootings in Tucson, Ariz. the nation’s leaders appear to have opened their eyes to the instability a lack of instability can feed

Looking back on Obama’s 2010 address to the nation his message of unity is a bit haunting.  He said government leaders think saying anything about the other side is just a part of the game regardless of accuracy or potential harm

“It’s precisely such politics that has stopped either party from helping the American people.  Worse yet, it’s sowing further division among the citizens, further distrust in the government,” Obama said

Obama has advocated mutual respect from the beginning, but his seemingly soft platform point is now poignant.  Now the wounding words have helped cause tangible damage in the form of six citizens killed and 18 shot – including a representative, a judge and an eight-year-old little girl with an interest in politics.

Issues Obama obviously cannot ignore include the health care bill and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Significant developments (or perhaps non-developments) on these subjects have filled headlines since the last address.  The health care bill was passed shortly after last year’s, so there is much to talk about on that front.  Republicans have vowed to repeal the health care act.  

Additionally, plenty of misconceptions about the health care bill are going around, particularly in the strange political climate that exists in Appalachia.  Obama will address concerns about health care, dispel rumors and emphasize the difficulties republicans face in trying to repeal it.

Obama will have to mention war, though I am certain he would like to avoid the subject.  As with any major project (perhaps more so) war takes time.  Change takes time, reform takes time and withdrawing from war zones nearly a decade old takes time – particularly when the U.S. is trying to avoid leaving complete instability behind.  He will have to cover this issue not only because of political disappointment, but because those loved ones on the home front are wondering when their family and friends will come home to stay.

The president will most likely boast of the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and he may give some alibi for not doing so as quickly as expected.  Speculation that some republicans were more behind the move than the president was pervasive in cable media the day of the vote.   It certainly does not look good to those who voted him in for his liberal tendencies.

Obama could mention the Upper Big Branch mine disaster in a call for clean energy.  He is extremely likely to mention energy as he did last year when he said the nation that leads the world in clean energy is the nation that leads the world.  The controversy surrounding mine safety and the call for stronger, earlier intervention on behalf of the Mine Safety and Health Administration (M.S.H.A.) seems to be appropriate – not only to mention the strides the nation needs to take in safety regulation, but also to advocate for other forms of energy.  The connection may not win him friends in the coalfields of West Virginia, but it is one that may be a persuasive point for other states. 

A strong topic for Obama’s 2010 State of the Union Address was education.  Obama said he would work on cutting the cost of education and making it possible for the literacy rate in the United States to grow.  The American Opportunity Tax Credit, the idea of universities finding ways to cap costs and the DREAM Act are just some of the steps Obama has taken in the past year.  This could be a strong selling point for what Obama has done.

The president is comparable to the nation’s leaders past through both the situations he took on when he took office and his way of reaching people. 

Obama is similar to President Franklin D. Roosevelt through situation and because they seem to think similarly.  Roosevelt entered office during the Great Depression, which was one of the largest national crises to that date.  His platform, much like Obama’s, included help from the government. They both entered office after presidents who emphasized small government, and good ol’ Americans going out and getting jobs on their own without undue competition from those who might be too lazy or unqualified without government help.  People in Roosevelt’s time thought his ideas were radical much like people think Obama’s ideas are the beginnings of socialism today.

Another past leader who was similar to Obama is President John F. Kennedy.  Both tried to lead the nation on hope and change.  Both were firsts as Kennedy was the first Catholic president (which seemed radical at the time) and Obama is the first African-American president.  All presidents have all eyes on them, but these two in particular.  To break these barriers both men had to be eloquent speakers, forceful enough to make a point and gain a following, but soft enough to make opponents listen without full disdain.  Both lead campaigns and presidencies based on what is new and what innovation can bring to a nation founded on new ideas.

Finally, Obama is much like President Abraham Lincoln.  Lincoln loved and believed in the strength of words.  Lincoln chose rhetoric over a big stick.  If Lincoln had been alive to run for the 2008 election he probably would have employed the same campaign methods as Obama.  Just as Obama’s platform grew almost overnight because of his endeavors in social media, his young campaign and the discovery of his memoirs, Lincoln used early forms of this method in his campaign and presidency.  

A CBS news piece comparing the two presidents mentions that Lincoln had verbatim copies of his speeches printed and distributed.  Harold Holzer, an author cited in the article, said the two paralleled with their personal tough in the spoken word. He said Lincoln grew up in a culture where presidential candidates did not speak – meaning Lincoln’s writings were just as vital as Obama’s in creating an image that could win the most votes.

Obama’s ability to put mind over matter, sense of humor and ability to speak well in any circumstance will propel him to success (and likely a few laughs) in the State of the Union Address, whether or not it leads him to success in the coming years.